Thursday, April 14, 2022, 11a -12p MDT, 2:00 - 3:00 PM Eastern
Presenters:
- David Lawrence, National Park Service
- Amber Runyon, National Park Service
Other co-authors:
- John Gross, National Park Service
- Gregor Schuurman, National Park Service
- Brian Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, North Central CASC
- Joel Reynolds, National Park Service
Register in advance »
After registering, you will receive an email confirmation containing information about how to join the meeting.
Abstract:
When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool. Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it. Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive measures to prepare for and adapt to scenarios of change. A key part of scenario planning is generating a list of potential future climates we may experience. This webinar will describe and compare different approaches to generate the climate futures and identify an approach that captures a broad range of climate conditions (a key ingredient to developing scenarios) across both near and long-term planning horizons. We then will describe tools for creating reproducible climate futures, including an R package and training materials that enables users to develop their own projections, and provide guidance on their use. Over the past decade, we have operationalized the generation of climate futures and with the recent development of the Reproducible Climate Futures (RCF) R package, standardized and streamlined their production. We have found climate futures and scenarios offer an adaptable approach to planning across a broad range of management contexts.
